home *** CD-ROM | disk | FTP | other *** search
- <text>
- <title>
- (1982) A Quest For Vengeance
- </title>
- <history>
- TIME--The Weekly Newsmagazine--1982 Highlights
- </history>
- <link 00206><article>
- <source>Time Magazine</source>
- <hdr>
- July 26, 1982
- MIDDLE EAST
- A Quest for Vengeance
- </hdr>
- <body>
- <p>Khomeini's legions invade Iraq and threaten the whole Arab world
- </p>
- <p> "Your Iranian brothers, in order to defend their country and
- push back the attacks on the enemy of Islam, have been forced
- to cross over into Iraq to save the oppressed Iraqi people. Rise
- up and install the Islamic government that you want!" So
- declared Iran's Ayatullah Ruhollah Khomeini last week as he
- launched his army along the Shatt al Arab waterway in a huge
- invasion of Iraq. For the first time in the 22 months since Iraq
- initially attacked Iran, heavy fighting was taking place on
- Iraqi territory. Khomeini's objective was not just the overthrow
- of his bitter enemy, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, but the
- creation of the Iraqi Islamic Republic modeled on Iran's own.
- To moderate rulers throughout the Arab world, the threat was
- even more awesome: a rising wave of Islamic fundamentalism,
- reinforced by an Iranian victory in Iraq, that could topple Arab
- governments from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea.
- </p>
- <p> After 48 hours of rising artillery exchanges, the Iranian high
- command last Tuesday night broadcast a coded message: Ya Saheb
- ez-Zaman! Ya Saheb ez-Zaman!" (Translation: Thou absent
- Imam!) That was the order for as many as 100,000 soldiers and
- militiamen to begin the march toward Basra, Iraq's second
- largest city and the nerve center of its oil-producing region,
- and to engage an Iraqi army of about the same size. "Operation
- Ramadan" had begun. The first Iranian goal appeared to be the
- capture of Basra and much of southern Iraq, from which the
- invaders could either press on to Baghdad, the Iraqi capital 280
- miles to the northwest, or pin down Iraqi divisions while a
- second invasion force was launched directly at Baghdad, which is
- only about 75 miles from the border.
- </p>
- <p> Within 24 hours the two armies were locked in what was believed
- to be one of the biggest land battles since World War II. In the
- intense fighting that followed, thousands were killed and scores
- of tanks were destroyed as the Iraqis fought off the first wave
- of invaders. Said an Iranian officer of the packed battle scene:
- "Even if you shoot with your eyes closed, you are bound to hit
- someone." It was also a time of fervor and of exaggerated
- claims. In Tehran, masses of Khomeini supporters ignored the
- wail of air-raid sirens and marched through the capital in
- support of their leader. The Iranians announced they had
- destroyed two Iraqi divisions, but by the end of the week their
- offensive appeared to have stalled, leading the Iraqis to
- proclaim a "great victory." Meanwhile there were numerous
- indications that Khomeini's forces were preparing another major
- attack, which would probably take place some time this week.
- </p>
- <p> With the outbreak of fighting on Iraqi territory, one of the
- most feared of Middle East scenarios was unfolding. The Arab
- world was already in disarray over Israel's invasion of Lebanon
- seven weeks ago in an attempt to dislodge the Palestine
- Liberation Organization. With no end to the siege of West Beirut
- in sight, another non-Arab country, Iran,
- had invaded Arab territory and seemed, moreover, to have a
- better-than-even change of unseating the ruling government. At
- immediate risk were the moderate, hereditary regimes of Saudi
- Arabia and the rest of the gulf. But the Ayatullah Khomeini's
- vow was even more explosive: to press on to Jerusalem, to
- liberate the Holy City and overwhelm all enemies of Islam.
- </p>
- <p> More serious still, the pressures induced by the wars in the
- Middle East have drawn the U.S. and Soviet Union into
- dangerously confrontational positions, for the struggles involve
- not only the warring armies of Islam but future control over the
- Persian Gulf and largest known petroleum reserves on earth. The
- worst worries of the U.S. and of the moderate Arab leaders
- presuppose an Iraqi defeat by the Iranian invaders. But the
- outcome of the war is not clear by any means. The Iraqis
- appeared by week's end to have blunted the initial Iranian
- attack on Basra and driven the Iranians back almost to the
- border. The Iraqis were fighting harder in defense of their
- country than they had fought during their long, misguided
- adventure in Iran. U.S. intelligence sources confirmed that
- Iraqi MiG-21s had staged an air attack on the Iranian petroleum
- facilities at Kharg Island. Damage was said to be light, but the
- incident was bound to have a discouraging effect on tankers
- bound for the island.
- </p>
- <p> "Iraq wanted peace," declared Iraq's Saddam, triumphant for the
- moment and ignoring the fact that he had sent his army into Iran
- in the first place. On Friday, two days after the initial
- Iranian attack had subsided, TIME Photographer Peter Jordan
- visited the battlefield and found it bare except for hundreds
- of bloating bodies, burned-out tanks and artillery pieces, and
- a handful of Iraqi soldiers. Reported Jordan, the only Western
- newsman on the scent: "The stench from the bodies was so
- intolerable that the Iraqis stuffed tissues or cotton into their
- nostrils. Among the Iranian prisoners were children, boys of
- twelve and 13, who wore the colors of the Revolutionary Guards.
- When the Iranians, who had fought their way to within eight
- miles of Basra, realized that they were surrounded on three
- sides by Iraqi forces, they reportedly broke ranks in panic.
- Some surrendered, later acknowledging to interrogators that they
- had been assured by their superiors that their victories inside
- Iran last spring would lead to further triumphs once they had
- entered Iraq." That may yet prove to be true, but it did not
- work out that way last week.
- </p>
- <p> Meanwhile, Iranian officials angrily denied that they had become
- this aggressors in the war. Declared Iran's United National
- Ambassador Said Rajaie-Khorasani to TIME Correspondent Raji
- Samghabadi: "The Saddam Hussein regime has inflicted stupendous
- losses of life and property on us. It has done everything within
- its power to humiliate the Islamic Republic. Now we are expected
- to give the war criminals a chance to rebuild their forces and
- spring at our throat again. Sorry, no deal."
- </p>
- <p> For weeks the revolutionary government in Iran had debated how
- far the country should go in "punishing" Saddam Hussein.
- Iranian moderates, led by Majlis Speaker Ali Hashemi Rafsanjani,
- suggested that the $150 billion in reparations demanded of Iraq
- by President Ali Khamenei, a hard-liner, was negotiable. But the
- fanatics wanted nothing less than the destruction of Iraq's
- Baath Party and the establishment of an Islamic republic in
- Baghdad.
- </p>
- <p> Until June 21, Khomeini deliberately remained neutral in the
- debate, allowing subordinates ample time to state their
- positions. Then, characteristically, he made a speech fully
- supporting, and indeed surpassing, the positions of the
- extremists. Khomeini even criticized some of his own aids for
- paying more attention to the Israeli invasion of Lebanon than
- to the Iran-Iraq war. "We shall get to Lebanon, and to
- Jerusalem, through Iraq," said Khomeini, but "first we have to
- defeat this sinister [Baath] party."
- </p>
- <p> Khomeini's "Iraq first" policy quickly gained the support of
- Iran's two Arab allies, Syria and Libya, and soon Iran's
- Revolutionary Guards command was issuing a call for volunteers.
- Syria's position is based on its longstanding hatred of Saddam
- and the enmity between the Iraqi and Syrian branches of the
- Baath Party. Syria had sided with Iran while Iraqi forces were
- on Iranian soil, but its continued support of Iran, now that
- Khomeini's forces have invaded Arab Iraq, is a somewhat more
- awkward position for Syria to be taking. Syria has also been
- embarrassed by recent events in Lebanon. It has refused to offer
- temporary sanctuary to the leadership and guerrillas of the
- P.L.O., possibly because it is holding out for a better deal
- from the Saudis and the other oil-rich Arabs who would finance
- such a solution to the problem of the trapped P.L.O. forces.
- Furthermore, in battles with the Israelis last month, Syria lost
- at least 86 MiG aircraft. One apparent reason: Syria lacks
- skilled fighter pilots, partly because it prefers that its new
- pilots be members of the minority Alawite sect, an offshoot of
- Shi'ite Islam to which President Hafez Assad belongs.
- </p>
- <p> Like Assad, Saddam Hussein is a member of a minority group
- within his own nation. He is a Sunni Muslim in a country whose
- population of 14 million is 55% Shi'ite. Iran has assumed that
- this fact alone makes Saddam vulnerable to being overthrown, but
- that reasoning may not be correct. Saddam has created a cult of
- personality around himself. Today his fact can be seen
- everywhere in his capital city, in a wide variety of sizes and
- demeanors. A huge painting on Rashid Street, for example, shows
- him in uniform, leading a tank assault, while in the background
- swirls a visionary horse charge by the Iraqi cavalrymen who
- routed a Persian invasion in the 9th century. Though outnumbered
- ten to one, the horsemen were victorious in an epic three-day
- battle, and saved Iraq.
- </p>
- <p> Not unlike the Shah of Iran, Saddam has been devoting enormous
- effort and expense toward turning his backward country into a
- modern state. In addition, he has tried to make the Shi'ite
- community feel that it is being well taken care of. Italian and
- Korean workmen are laying marble in the inner courtyards of the
- principal shrines in the sacred Shi'ite cities of Najaf and
- Karbala; gold leaf is being splashed over mosques throughout the
- country. The poorer Shi'ite communities that once spawned
- opposition to the Baathist regime now have new schools,
- hospitals, roads, sewers, electricity and water lines. Even
- during the months of war, while many public works activities
- were postponed (and while the gulf states were contributing at
- least $20 billion to the Iraqi war chest), the projects in the
- Shi'ite areas continued. Whether Saddam has succeeded in gaining
- the loyalty of Iraq's Shi'ite community is a question that will
- probably be answered all too obviously within the next few
- weeks.
- </p>
- <p> For the U.S., the crisis had been looming since the fall of the
- Shah in 1979. U.S. strategists, their Iran policy paralyzed,
- were reduced to speculating that the Ayatullah, who is now 82
- and ailing, would soon die or become incapacitated, and that his
- fanatical regime might then collapse. The U.S. considered
- seeking closed ties with Saddam, a longtime ally of the Soviet
- Union who suddenly was sending signals that he was trying to
- extricate his country from the Soviet orbit. But once the U.S.
- hostages were released by Iranian authorities on Jan. 20, 1981,
- the new Reagan Administration decided to do nothing and hope for
- the best in Iran. The war between Iran and Iraq, which Saddam
- had launched in September 1980 in an effort to make Iraq the
- prominent power in the gulf, sputtered along inconclusively, a
- problem for the Iranians but a matter of little concern to the
- U.S.
- </p>
- <p> But late last year the gulf war suddenly heated up again,
- culminating in the battle of Khorramshahr two months ago. There,
- after a few hours of combat, the Iranians drove the discouraged
- Iraqis back across the western shore of the Shatt. In June,
- Saddam declared a unilateral cease-fire, withdrew the last of
- his forces from Iran and asked for peace. Absolutely not! cried
- the old Ayatullah. Khomeini responded with a set of demands that
- Saddam could not accept. Besides calling for the resignation of
- Saddam and the overthrow of the ruling Baath Party, Khomeini
- declared that the Iranian armed forces would seek to enable the
- people of Iraq to form "a government of their own choice--that,
- an Islamic government." When Iraq's friends in the gulf
- suggested that he settle for $50 billion in reparations, which
- they promised to raise, Khomeini turned down the offer as
- insufficient. "Why should he accept $50 billion?" an Egyptian
- official commented last week after the fighting shifted to Iraqi
- territory. "He thinks he can have it all."
- </p>
- <p> For the past year the Khomeini government has been gaining
- increasing support from the Soviet Union and its allies,
- including North Korea, Cuba and East Germany. Most helpful,
- perhaps, has been Syria, an Arab neighbor with a long history
- of hostility toward Iraq. Through Syria, Iran received large
- shipments of Soviet weaponry, including 130-mm artillery pieces,
- antiaircraft guns and tank engines. In the meantime, Washington
- remained silent while Israel sold Iran an estimated $120 million
- worth of military hardware, including spare parts and ammunition
- for Iran's American-made equipment, which had been acquired
- during the rule of the Shah. Nor did the U.S. openly complain
- that the Israelis were sending experts to Tehran to help the
- Iranians use their American-made weapons.
- </p>
- <p> With apparent shortsightedness, the government of Israeli Prime
- Minister Menachem Begin was supporting Iran in order to cause
- trouble for Saddam, whom it has regarded as its primary enemy
- in the Arab world. Thus the ancient adage "The enemy of my enemy
- is my friend," which guides the convoluted politics of so many
- nations in the Middle East, had reached its ultimate absurdity
- in revolutionary Iran: both the Soviet Union and a U.S. ally
- were contributing to the Ayatullah's war machine.
- </p>
- <p> From the beginning, the Soviets have moved with extreme caution
- in Iran. They ordered the local Tudeh (Communist) Party to
- infiltrate organizations of clerical power but to avoid any
- actions that could arouse official suspicion. Meanwhile, Moscow
- provided Iran with increasing amounts of military and economic
- aid, though always by proxy. Indeed, to hedge their bets, the
- Soviets continued giving token support to Iraq, with which they
- have had a friendship treaty since 1960 and whose army they have
- largely supplied.
- </p>
- <p> As an indication of how secure the Iranians have become about
- their relations with the Soviets, Iran decided several weeks ago
- to move eight divisions away from its border with the Soviet
- Union in order to relocate those forces along Iran's border with
- Iraq. It was the first time since the end of World War II, when
- the Soviets occupied Iran's northern province of Azerbaijan,
- that the Iranians had left their 1,090-mile border with the
- Soviet Union virtually unguarded. When King Hussein of Jordan
- visited Moscow late last month, Soviet Foreign Minister Andrei
- Gromyko told him that when the Iranian invasion of Iraq began,
- Moscow would be supporting Iran. It was the Soviet official's
- unsubtle way of hinting to Hussein that even though Jordan was
- Iraq's most faithful ally, the King would do well to remain on
- the sidelines of the forthcoming battle.
- </p>
- <p> Within the U.S. foreign policy establishment, there is
- disagreement about the degree of Soviet involvement in Iran.
- Soviet Expert Helmut Sonnenfeldt, a senior fellow at the
- Brookings Institution, believes the Soviets cooled on Saddam
- because he wanted unconditional support from Moscow for whatever
- he proposed to do against Israel or Iran, and was angry when he
- failed to obtain it. Moreover, Sonnenfeldt says, the Soviets
- were tilting increasingly toward Iran after the fall of the
- Shah, because they regarded Iran as a greater strategic prize.
- William Quandt, a former National Security Council official now
- at Brookings, doubts that the Soviets played a significant role
- in Iran's decision to invade Iraq. Says he: "Khomeini is a
- genuine revolutionary, and he would like to export his
- revolution. He is also a man who personalizes his quarrels--he
- `brought down the Shah,' he `brought down Jimmy Carter,' and he
- wants to bring down Saddam Hussein. If he could bring into power
- an Islamic regime in Iraq, so much the better."
- </p>
- <p> In early June, the Soviet Union urged Iran to make peace with
- Iraq under some of the terms Iran had demanded but with
- "modifications." The Soviets even proposed that the two
- countries join them in establishing an "anti-imperialist front."
- Had the Soviets brought about a peace agreement, it would have
- enabled them to retain close relations with both Iran and Iraq,
- and would have greatly bolstered their position in the region.
- Khomeini said no. On June 21, he made a speech in which he not
- only rebuffed Moscow's peacemaking efforts but denounced the
- whole Soviet role in the Middle East. Said Khomeini: "The
- Americans fear the Soviet Union might do this or that in the
- region if we defeat Iraq. The Soviet Union can do nothing. It
- has proved to be capable of nothing." Have put the Soviets in
- their place. Khomeini continued to accept support from them,
- just as he has accepted clandestine help from the Israelis.
- </p>
- <p> Iran's plan to attack Iraq, with Soviet acquiescence, was in
- the formative stages when the Israelis launched their invasion
- of Lebanon. The Israelis gambled that with a quick strike at
- their northern neighbor's heartland, they could impose a
- solution of sorts on their 34-year-old conflict with the
- Palestinian Arabs. They bought Defense Minister Ariel Sharon's
- argument that such an assault could free northern Israel from
- occasional P.L.O. attacks, break the organization's leadership
- and perhaps even create pressure on the Palestinians to make
- Jordan their homeland. If Syria attacked Israel's invasion
- force, so much the better, because Sharon was prepared to carry
- his anti-Palestinian offensive all the way to the Syrian
- capital, Damascus.
- </p>
- <p> Their campaign in Lebanon has generally produced the results
- the Israelis were seeking, but it has spilled enough blood to
- worry the Reagan Administration and its allies. The spectacle
- has been observed by 100 million or more citizens of the Arab
- would on their TV sets: the siege of Beirut, the brutality of
- the ceasefire violations, the Beirut negotiations leading toward
- the Israeli goal of expelling the P.L.O. fighting force from
- Lebanon. Even Arabs with the highest stakes in the gulf war,the
- emirs of Kuwait and princes of Saudi Arabia, have been
- traumatized and distracted from their more immediate problems
- by the war in Lebanon. They have watched the first siege of an
- Arab capital by an Israeli army, and they have become alarmed
- at the emotions aroused in their own countries.
- </p>
- <p> For the Soviets, according to most Western analysts, the
- long-term goal is control of Middle East oil. In Afghanistan,
- they have built a new airfield in the corner of the country
- closest to the mouth of the Persian Gulf. In the Horn of Africa
- last week, Soviet-back Ethiopia attacked its traditional enemy
- next door, Somalia, probably with the help of Cuban and East
- German advisers. If the Ethiopians should defeat Somalia, they
- and their Soviet allies would gain a position of influence over
- a country that is strategically located at the southern end of
- the Red Sea. Moscow could then, if it wished, call South Yemeni
- troops back into combat with Oman, which, like Somalia, is
- scheduled to provide facilities for the U.S. Rapid Deployment
- Force.
- </p>
- <p> Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has sold Iraq $500 million
- worth of arms and ammunition since the Iran-Iraq war began.
- Nonetheless, Mubarak fears that Saddam may not be able to stand
- up to the Ayatullah's army and Revolutionary Guards for long.
- Iran is four times the size of Iraq and has a population that
- is three times as large. The Egyptian government believes that
- the fighting may be over by September at the latest. And after
- that? Would Khomeini rules Iraq as the reigning ayatullah, as
- he does Iran, or through a Shi'ite-dominated political mechanism
- more closely attuned to the Arab traditions of Iraq?
- </p>
- <p> That question matters less to Arab leaders than the fact that
- Khomeini's forces are already plotting the overthrow of every
- government in the gulf. TIME has learned that a new corps of
- revolutionaries is being trained under the name of the Popular
- Front for the Liberation of the Gulf. The group is led by a
- noted ayatullah operating out of Tehran. Recruits are being
- trained in camps in South Yemen and Libya and in a new facility
- recently opened for a class of 600 in northwestern Iran. The
- initial graduates began to filter into the gulf states two year
- ago. Some of them bungled their first coup attempt last
- December, when Bahrain police arrested 80 terrorists trained and
- armed by Iran for the purpose of overthrowing the government of
- Sheik Isa Al-Khalifa. Other subversive activity in the gulf
- sponsored by Iran is known to be under way.
- </p>
- <p> One plan being discussed among Iraq's Arab allied for
- countering subversive activity calls for the establishment of
- an Arab rapid deployment force. The proposal would involve an
- Egyptian contingent of several divisions and would perhaps be
- deployed along the borders of Iraq in Kuwait and in the Eastern
- Province of Saudi Arabia. As a down payment, Egypt would insist
- on the restoration of diplomatic relations that were broken off
- by most of the gulf states following the conclusion of Egypt's
- peace treaty with Israel. The Egyptians would also require ample
- supplies of U.S. equipment and strong American support,
- including air force and naval assistance if necessary.
- </p>
- <p> But Mubarak must be cautious about committing his troops to
- foreign service. After the late Anwar Sadat made his historic
- trip to Jerusalem in 1977, with the full support of his military
- commanders, they told him that in the future they would fight
- only for Egypt. They did not want to right for Palestinians or
- for the antiroyalists in the civil war in Yemen. Egypt's
- commanders were prepared to accept peace with Israel, provided
- that they would never again have to send Egyptian troops to
- fight outside their own country.
- </p>
- <p> Mubarak knows it could be a mistake for him to send troops to
- assist Saddam in Iraq. Such a move not only might antagonize
- Egypt's generals, but would also anger the Islamic
- fundamentalists in the country. It was the fundamentalists who
- assassinated President Sadat last October, and they remain a
- threat in spite of Mubarak's crackdowns. Nonetheless Mubarak is
- prepared to offer Egyptian troops to defend Saudi Arabia, Kuwait
- and the other gulf states,under the terms of the 30-year-old
- Joint Arab Defense Pact, if the arrangement is approved by the
- states involved and supported militarily by the U.S. Considering
- Mubarak's reluctance to send forces anywhere outside Egypt, the
- current discussion of such a mission is an indication of how
- worried he is about the spread of Islamic revolution.
- </p>
- <p> Even some of Khomeini's friends are upset about the Iranian
- invasion of Iraq. The P.L.O., which has generally supported
- Khomeini out of deference to Syria, is furious with the Iranians
- for launching an invasion that can only divert attention from
- the Palestinians' plight in Lebanon. Arab and Western diplomats
- feared that the Iranian attack would enable Israel to move
- briskly into West Beirut to settle the problem of the stubborn
- P.L.O. Not that such an argument would carry much weight with
- the ruler of Iran, which has once more become the primary power
- in the gulf. If the Palestinians want Jerusalem as the capital
- of a state of their own, Khomeini wants it as the goal of a holy
- crusade.
- </p>
- <p> Officially, Iranians quarrel with the notion that they are
- committed to the overthrow of Arab governments. They also deny
- that they have fallen under the influence of the Soviet Union.
- As Iran's Ambassador to the U.N., Rajaie Khorasani, said last
- week, "We have proved that a nation armed with the ideology of
- Islam need not choose between the superpowers but can stand on
- its own feet." It is true that a wave of Islamic revolutionary
- fervor moving across the Middle East would not necessarily serve
- the interests of the Soviet Union any more than it would help
- the West. But since it would damage existing ties of all kinds,
- cultural as well as political and economic, it would have a
- great impact on the Arab world's links with the West than on
- those with the Soviet Union and its allies.
- </p>
- <p> Still to be determined is the effect of the gulf war on world
- oil prices and markets. Taken together, Iran and Iraq have about
- half the oil reserves and export capacity of Saudi Arabia, the
- world leader. In recent months, Iran's refusal to abide by
- production ceilings set by the Organizations of the Petroleum
- Exporting Countries has helped keep world prices down as global
- output continued to exceed demand. There was no evidence last
- week that either prices or supplies had yet been affected by the
- fighting in Iraq.
- </p>
- <p> But the petroleum industries of both countries, and
- particularly Iraq, are quite vulnerable. After its attack on
- Iran's Kharg Island facilities last week, Iraq reportedly warned
- Japan that its tankers should stop using the island. If Iran
- decides to retaliate in kind, it would probably aim first at the
- Iraq-Turkey pipeline, the only export route now available for
- Iraqi oil, and at the scattered fields to the west of Basra. A
- determined Iran could take Iraq out of the oil business for as
- long as two years. But even if warfare should paralyze the oil
- industries of Iran, Iraq and neighboring Kuwait, thereby
- removing about 4 million bbl. per day from world oil markets,
- the loss could be overcome by Saudi Arabia, which could
- increase production from its current 6.5 million to 10.5 million
- bbl. per day.
- </p>
- <p> What seems indisputable, as the two Middle East wars continue,
- is that they are costing the U.S. dearly in prestige. Arab
- rulers who privately would welcome American assistance at the
- moment fear that they would only inflict damage on their regimes
- by appearing to be in league with the U.S. The Reagan
- Administration last week offered to hold joint military
- exercises with Saudi Arabia and any other gulf states that might
- feel threatened by the Iran-Iraq conflict, but so far there have
- been no takers. The most critical problem afflicting U.S.-Arab
- relations at the moment stems from the link that many Arabs
- believe exists between the U.S. and Israel's operation in
- Lebanon. But the Arabs also deeply resent the fact that the
- Israelis chose to give military support to Khomeini's Iran. The
- Israelis respond that the aid effort was based on their
- traditional enmity toward Iraq. They claim their aid was halted
- several months ago, long before the Iranian invasion of Iraq
- began. Other sources say that some Israeli aid, including the
- training of Iranian military personnel in the use of American
- arms, is continuing.
- </p>
- <p> What the Reagan Administration still needs most, after 18 months
- in office, is a strong policy for the Middle East. Another
- central problem has been its unwillingness to say in public what
- it has been telling the Israelis in private. According to most
- observers, the U.S. opposed the Israeli invasion of Lebanon,
- though this did not have any effect on the Israeli government.
- But by failing to state its position forcefully, the
- Administration appeared to the Arab states to be a silent
- partner in the attack or at the very least an overly indulgent
- ally. Until the U.S. can distinguish openly between American
- policy and Israeli policy, and rein in some of the more
- expansionist tendencies of the Begin government, it cannot make
- real headway in improving its relations with the Arab world.
- </p>
- <p> Theoretically, the Administration was correct to hew a neutral
- line between Iran and Ira, but changing circumstances call for
- a defter touch than the U.S. has displayed thus far. Says
- Richard Helms, a former U.S. Ambassador to Iran (and onetime
- head of the Central Intelligence Agency): "Now is the time to
- come to the aid of our moderate Arab friends. We shouldn't tilt
- toward Iraq so much that we throw Iran into the arms of the
- Soviets, but we can tilt a little bit, enough to encourage the
- Saudis and some of the others to conclude that we are still
- their friends and would come to their rescue if worse comes to
- worse."
- </p>
- <p> The first step for the U.S. is to deal forthrightly with the
- Palestinian question. This, in fact, is exactly what Secretary
- of State George Shultz promised at his confirmation hearing last
- week. The Lebanese crisis had made it "painfully and totally
- clear," Shultz told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, that
- the "legitimate needs and problems" of the Palestinian people
- must be resolved. He might well have added that the West's
- failure to solve the Palestinian problem has had a lot to do
- with giving Islamic fundamentalism its anti-Western basis of
- action. The more ambitious Khomeini's forces become, and the
- more expansionist his goals in the name of Islam, the more vital
- it is that the U.S. have a Middle East policy that is perceived
- to be consistent and fair by all moderate parties in the Arab
- world.
- </p>
- <p>-- By William E. Smith. Reported by Murray J. Gart/Middle East
- and Dean Brelis/Baghdad
- </p>
- <p>Shi'ites: A Feared Minority
- </p>
- <p> With the death of the Prophet Muhammad in A.D. 643, the
- conflicts that led to the great division of Islam between Sunnis
- and Shi'ites began. Today the Sunnis account for more than 80%
- of the world's 750 million Muslims, but the Shi'ites, who
- predominate in Iran, Iraq and Bahrain and who have unstable
- minorities in Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and Kuwait, generate fears
- far out of proportion to their numbers.
- </p>
- <p> The Shi'ites believe that the leadership of Islam should have
- remained in the Prophet's family. The Sunnis prefer to make
- such decisions by consensus. The Shi'ites supported Muhammad's
- cousin and son-in-law Ali, who became the fourth Caliph, or
- successor, before his assassination in 661. According to the
- Shi'ites. Ali and his descendants were Imams, divinely guided
- leaders and mediators between God and man. The last of twelve
- Imams disappeared in 940, and is believed to be in hiding,
- awaiting the right moment to re-emerge and establish a purified
- Islamic government of justice.
- </p>
- <p> Because of the violent deaths of Ali and his son Husain,
- Shi'ites, unlike Sunnis, emphasize martyrdom and atonement.
- Every year the Shi'ites mourn Husain's death with public
- re-enactments of the occurrence and displays of
- self-flagellation. The same passion seems to have motivated
- hundreds of thousands of unarmed Iranians who faced down the
- Shah's troops in the streets of Tehran in 1978 and 1979.
- Khomeini, no doubt, is counting on that fervor to propel the
- Iranian legions that stormed across the Iraqi border last week.
- </p>
- <p>Personal Power, Personal Hate
- </p>
- <p> The decision to attack Iraq last week was taken personally by
- Ayatullah Ruhollah Khomeini. Despite his advanced age (82) and
- frail health, the religious leader has relinquished none of the
- levers of power that he grasped upon his triumphal return to
- Tehran 3 1/2 year ago. Under Iran's Islamic Republican
- constitution, Khomeini's role as Velayat-e-Faqih, or religious
- guardian, gives him more power than either President Seyed Ali
- Khamene'i or Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Moussavi, and he uses
- it to shape all major strategies, domestic as well as foreign.
- He also remains the final arbiter of all policy and personality
- disputes.
- </p>
- <p> Almost every day, government officials, military officers,
- clerics and foreign representatives travel to Khomeini's modest
- home in Jamaran, a village north of Tehran. Some have been
- summoned to brief the Ayatullah on everything from logistic
- problems on the Iraqi front to statistics on mosque attendance.
- Others who wish to see Khomeini must submit a request through
- a cleric who acts as an appointments secretary; Khomeini
- receives only a small proportion of those seeking an audience.
- Sometimes he will make an appearance at the mosque adjacent to
- his house. There he receives petitions from the faithful and
- obeisance from his followers. Khomeini uses these occasions to
- speak out on religious and political subjects. Though his
- precarious health has been complicated lately by kidney
- problems, which have necessitated an even stricter diet than the
- one he favors, and by difficulties in breathing, he remains
- psychologically firm and mentally alert.
- </p>
- <p> Khomeini's approach to decision making is to keep his counsel
- at first, allowing the advocates of different options to debate
- issues openly. But once Khomeini has announced his choice, all
- contending factions rally to his view, regardless of where they
- stood before. So it was with the invasion of Iraq.
- </p>
- <p> Personal motives played an important part in Khomeini's decision
- to send his forces into Iraq. The Ayatullah, who was exiled to
- Iraq's Holy City of An Najaf after several arrests for anti-Shah
- activities, has never forgiven Saddam Hussein for trying to use
- him as a paw, in Iraqi-Iranian relations. To placate the Shah
- during a short-lived period of rapprochement between the two
- countries. Saddam Hussein placed Khomeini under virtual house
- arrest in 1975. Three years later, as the Shah came under
- increasing pressure from Islamic fundamentalists operating with
- Khomeini's backing, Saddam agreed to expel the Ayatullah. It was
- then that Khomeini moved to France. Today Khomeini refers to
- Saddam as "the epitome of atheist filth."
- </p>
- <p> In addition, Saddam's aggressively secular, socialist regime has
- long been anathema to Khomeini's philosophy of government, which
- insists on the clergy's God-given right to rule. With its 55%
- Shi'ite majority and Shi'ite shrines at An Najaf and Karbala,
- Iraq should, in Khomeini's view, be the natural home of a sister
- Islamic republic.
- </p>
- <p> Four years ago, when Khomeini was still an exile in France, he
- was asked who his enemies were. "First the Shah," Khomeini
- replied, "then the American Satan, then Saddam Hussein and his
- infidel Baath Party." Today the Shah is dead. The U.S. was
- humiliated by the 444-day capture of its embassy staff in
- Tehran. That leaves Saddam Hussein on the front line of
- Khomeini's hatred.</p>
-
- </body>
- </article>
- </text>
-