home
***
CD-ROM
|
disk
|
FTP
|
other
***
search
/
TIME: Almanac of the 20th Century
/
TIME, Almanac of the 20th Century.ISO
/
1980
/
82
/
82quest
< prev
next >
Wrap
Text File
|
1994-02-27
|
35KB
|
630 lines
<text>
<title>
(1982) A Quest For Vengeance
</title>
<history>
TIME--The Weekly Newsmagazine--1982 Highlights
</history>
<link 00206><article>
<source>Time Magazine</source>
<hdr>
July 26, 1982
MIDDLE EAST
A Quest for Vengeance
</hdr>
<body>
<p>Khomeini's legions invade Iraq and threaten the whole Arab world
</p>
<p> "Your Iranian brothers, in order to defend their country and
push back the attacks on the enemy of Islam, have been forced
to cross over into Iraq to save the oppressed Iraqi people. Rise
up and install the Islamic government that you want!" So
declared Iran's Ayatullah Ruhollah Khomeini last week as he
launched his army along the Shatt al Arab waterway in a huge
invasion of Iraq. For the first time in the 22 months since Iraq
initially attacked Iran, heavy fighting was taking place on
Iraqi territory. Khomeini's objective was not just the overthrow
of his bitter enemy, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, but the
creation of the Iraqi Islamic Republic modeled on Iran's own.
To moderate rulers throughout the Arab world, the threat was
even more awesome: a rising wave of Islamic fundamentalism,
reinforced by an Iranian victory in Iraq, that could topple Arab
governments from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean Sea.
</p>
<p> After 48 hours of rising artillery exchanges, the Iranian high
command last Tuesday night broadcast a coded message: Ya Saheb
ez-Zaman! Ya Saheb ez-Zaman!" (Translation: Thou absent
Imam!) That was the order for as many as 100,000 soldiers and
militiamen to begin the march toward Basra, Iraq's second
largest city and the nerve center of its oil-producing region,
and to engage an Iraqi army of about the same size. "Operation
Ramadan" had begun. The first Iranian goal appeared to be the
capture of Basra and much of southern Iraq, from which the
invaders could either press on to Baghdad, the Iraqi capital 280
miles to the northwest, or pin down Iraqi divisions while a
second invasion force was launched directly at Baghdad, which is
only about 75 miles from the border.
</p>
<p> Within 24 hours the two armies were locked in what was believed
to be one of the biggest land battles since World War II. In the
intense fighting that followed, thousands were killed and scores
of tanks were destroyed as the Iraqis fought off the first wave
of invaders. Said an Iranian officer of the packed battle scene:
"Even if you shoot with your eyes closed, you are bound to hit
someone." It was also a time of fervor and of exaggerated
claims. In Tehran, masses of Khomeini supporters ignored the
wail of air-raid sirens and marched through the capital in
support of their leader. The Iranians announced they had
destroyed two Iraqi divisions, but by the end of the week their
offensive appeared to have stalled, leading the Iraqis to
proclaim a "great victory." Meanwhile there were numerous
indications that Khomeini's forces were preparing another major
attack, which would probably take place some time this week.
</p>
<p> With the outbreak of fighting on Iraqi territory, one of the
most feared of Middle East scenarios was unfolding. The Arab
world was already in disarray over Israel's invasion of Lebanon
seven weeks ago in an attempt to dislodge the Palestine
Liberation Organization. With no end to the siege of West Beirut
in sight, another non-Arab country, Iran,
had invaded Arab territory and seemed, moreover, to have a
better-than-even change of unseating the ruling government. At
immediate risk were the moderate, hereditary regimes of Saudi
Arabia and the rest of the gulf. But the Ayatullah Khomeini's
vow was even more explosive: to press on to Jerusalem, to
liberate the Holy City and overwhelm all enemies of Islam.
</p>
<p> More serious still, the pressures induced by the wars in the
Middle East have drawn the U.S. and Soviet Union into
dangerously confrontational positions, for the struggles involve
not only the warring armies of Islam but future control over the
Persian Gulf and largest known petroleum reserves on earth. The
worst worries of the U.S. and of the moderate Arab leaders
presuppose an Iraqi defeat by the Iranian invaders. But the
outcome of the war is not clear by any means. The Iraqis
appeared by week's end to have blunted the initial Iranian
attack on Basra and driven the Iranians back almost to the
border. The Iraqis were fighting harder in defense of their
country than they had fought during their long, misguided
adventure in Iran. U.S. intelligence sources confirmed that
Iraqi MiG-21s had staged an air attack on the Iranian petroleum
facilities at Kharg Island. Damage was said to be light, but the
incident was bound to have a discouraging effect on tankers
bound for the island.
</p>
<p> "Iraq wanted peace," declared Iraq's Saddam, triumphant for the
moment and ignoring the fact that he had sent his army into Iran
in the first place. On Friday, two days after the initial
Iranian attack had subsided, TIME Photographer Peter Jordan
visited the battlefield and found it bare except for hundreds
of bloating bodies, burned-out tanks and artillery pieces, and
a handful of Iraqi soldiers. Reported Jordan, the only Western
newsman on the scent: "The stench from the bodies was so
intolerable that the Iraqis stuffed tissues or cotton into their
nostrils. Among the Iranian prisoners were children, boys of
twelve and 13, who wore the colors of the Revolutionary Guards.
When the Iranians, who had fought their way to within eight
miles of Basra, realized that they were surrounded on three
sides by Iraqi forces, they reportedly broke ranks in panic.
Some surrendered, later acknowledging to interrogators that they
had been assured by their superiors that their victories inside
Iran last spring would lead to further triumphs once they had
entered Iraq." That may yet prove to be true, but it did not
work out that way last week.
</p>
<p> Meanwhile, Iranian officials angrily denied that they had become
this aggressors in the war. Declared Iran's United National
Ambassador Said Rajaie-Khorasani to TIME Correspondent Raji
Samghabadi: "The Saddam Hussein regime has inflicted stupendous
losses of life and property on us. It has done everything within
its power to humiliate the Islamic Republic. Now we are expected
to give the war criminals a chance to rebuild their forces and
spring at our throat again. Sorry, no deal."
</p>
<p> For weeks the revolutionary government in Iran had debated how
far the country should go in "punishing" Saddam Hussein.
Iranian moderates, led by Majlis Speaker Ali Hashemi Rafsanjani,
suggested that the $150 billion in reparations demanded of Iraq
by President Ali Khamenei, a hard-liner, was negotiable. But the
fanatics wanted nothing less than the destruction of Iraq's
Baath Party and the establishment of an Islamic republic in
Baghdad.
</p>
<p> Until June 21, Khomeini deliberately remained neutral in the
debate, allowing subordinates ample time to state their
positions. Then, characteristically, he made a speech fully
supporting, and indeed surpassing, the positions of the
extremists. Khomeini even criticized some of his own aids for
paying more attention to the Israeli invasion of Lebanon than
to the Iran-Iraq war. "We shall get to Lebanon, and to
Jerusalem, through Iraq," said Khomeini, but "first we have to
defeat this sinister [Baath] party."
</p>
<p> Khomeini's "Iraq first" policy quickly gained the support of
Iran's two Arab allies, Syria and Libya, and soon Iran's
Revolutionary Guards command was issuing a call for volunteers.
Syria's position is based on its longstanding hatred of Saddam
and the enmity between the Iraqi and Syrian branches of the
Baath Party. Syria had sided with Iran while Iraqi forces were
on Iranian soil, but its continued support of Iran, now that
Khomeini's forces have invaded Arab Iraq, is a somewhat more
awkward position for Syria to be taking. Syria has also been
embarrassed by recent events in Lebanon. It has refused to offer
temporary sanctuary to the leadership and guerrillas of the
P.L.O., possibly because it is holding out for a better deal
from the Saudis and the other oil-rich Arabs who would finance
such a solution to the problem of the trapped P.L.O. forces.
Furthermore, in battles with the Israelis last month, Syria lost
at least 86 MiG aircraft. One apparent reason: Syria lacks
skilled fighter pilots, partly because it prefers that its new
pilots be members of the minority Alawite sect, an offshoot of
Shi'ite Islam to which President Hafez Assad belongs.
</p>
<p> Like Assad, Saddam Hussein is a member of a minority group
within his own nation. He is a Sunni Muslim in a country whose
population of 14 million is 55% Shi'ite. Iran has assumed that
this fact alone makes Saddam vulnerable to being overthrown, but
that reasoning may not be correct. Saddam has created a cult of
personality around himself. Today his fact can be seen
everywhere in his capital city, in a wide variety of sizes and
demeanors. A huge painting on Rashid Street, for example, shows
him in uniform, leading a tank assault, while in the background
swirls a visionary horse charge by the Iraqi cavalrymen who
routed a Persian invasion in the 9th century. Though outnumbered
ten to one, the horsemen were victorious in an epic three-day
battle, and saved Iraq.
</p>
<p> Not unlike the Shah of Iran, Saddam has been devoting enormous
effort and expense toward turning his backward country into a
modern state. In addition, he has tried to make the Shi'ite
community feel that it is being well taken care of. Italian and
Korean workmen are laying marble in the inner courtyards of the
principal shrines in the sacred Shi'ite cities of Najaf and
Karbala; gold leaf is being splashed over mosques throughout the
country. The poorer Shi'ite communities that once spawned
opposition to the Baathist regime now have new schools,
hospitals, roads, sewers, electricity and water lines. Even
during the months of war, while many public works activities
were postponed (and while the gulf states were contributing at
least $20 billion to the Iraqi war chest), the projects in the
Shi'ite areas continued. Whether Saddam has succeeded in gaining
the loyalty of Iraq's Shi'ite community is a question that will
probably be answered all too obviously within the next few
weeks.
</p>
<p> For the U.S., the crisis had been looming since the fall of the
Shah in 1979. U.S. strategists, their Iran policy paralyzed,
were reduced to speculating that the Ayatullah, who is now 82
and ailing, would soon die or become incapacitated, and that his
fanatical regime might then collapse. The U.S. considered
seeking closed ties with Saddam, a longtime ally of the Soviet
Union who suddenly was sending signals that he was trying to
extricate his country from the Soviet orbit. But once the U.S.
hostages were released by Iranian authorities on Jan. 20, 1981,
the new Reagan Administration decided to do nothing and hope for
the best in Iran. The war between Iran and Iraq, which Saddam
had launched in September 1980 in an effort to make Iraq the
prominent power in the gulf, sputtered along inconclusively, a
problem for the Iranians but a matter of little concern to the
U.S.
</p>
<p> But late last year the gulf war suddenly heated up again,
culminating in the battle of Khorramshahr two months ago. There,
after a few hours of combat, the Iranians drove the discouraged
Iraqis back across the western shore of the Shatt. In June,
Saddam declared a unilateral cease-fire, withdrew the last of
his forces from Iran and asked for peace. Absolutely not! cried
the old Ayatullah. Khomeini responded with a set of demands that
Saddam could not accept. Besides calling for the resignation of
Saddam and the overthrow of the ruling Baath Party, Khomeini
declared that the Iranian armed forces would seek to enable the
people of Iraq to form "a government of their own choice--that,
an Islamic government." When Iraq's friends in the gulf
suggested that he settle for $50 billion in reparations, which
they promised to raise, Khomeini turned down the offer as
insufficient. "Why should he accept $50 billion?" an Egyptian
official commented last week after the fighting shifted to Iraqi
territory. "He thinks he can have it all."
</p>
<p> For the past year the Khomeini government has been gaining
increasing support from the Soviet Union and its allies,
including North Korea, Cuba and East Germany. Most helpful,
perhaps, has been Syria, an Arab neighbor with a long history
of hostility toward Iraq. Through Syria, Iran received large
shipments of Soviet weaponry, including 130-mm artillery pieces,
antiaircraft guns and tank engines. In the meantime, Washington
remained silent while Israel sold Iran an estimated $120 million
worth of military hardware, including spare parts and ammunition
for Iran's American-made equipment, which had been acquired
during the rule of the Shah. Nor did the U.S. openly complain
that the Israelis were sending experts to Tehran to help the
Iranians use their American-made weapons.
</p>
<p> With apparent shortsightedness, the government of Israeli Prime
Minister Menachem Begin was supporting Iran in order to cause
trouble for Saddam, whom it has regarded as its primary enemy
in the Arab world. Thus the ancient adage "The enemy of my enemy
is my friend," which guides the convoluted politics of so many
nations in the Middle East, had reached its ultimate absurdity
in revolutionary Iran: both the Soviet Union and a U.S. ally
were contributing to the Ayatullah's war machine.
</p>
<p> From the beginning, the Soviets have moved with extreme caution
in Iran. They ordered the local Tudeh (Communist) Party to
infiltrate organizations of clerical power but to avoid any
actions that could arouse official suspicion. Meanwhile, Moscow
provided Iran with increasing amounts of military and economic
aid, though always by proxy. Indeed, to hedge their bets, the
Soviets continued giving token support to Iraq, with which they
have had a friendship treaty since 1960 and whose army they have
largely supplied.
</p>
<p> As an indication of how secure the Iranians have become about
their relations with the Soviets, Iran decided several weeks ago
to move eight divisions away from its border with the Soviet
Union in order to relocate those forces along Iran's border with
Iraq. It was the first time since the end of World War II, when
the Soviets occupied Iran's northern province of Azerbaijan,
that the Iranians had left their 1,090-mile border with the
Soviet Union virtually unguarded. When King Hussein of Jordan
visited Moscow late last month, Soviet Foreign Minister Andrei
Gromyko told him that when the Iranian invasion of Iraq began,
Moscow would be supporting Iran. It was the Soviet official's
unsubtle way of hinting to Hussein that even though Jordan was
Iraq's most faithful ally, the King would do well to remain on
the sidelines of the forthcoming battle.
</p>
<p> Within the U.S. foreign policy establishment, there is
disagreement about the degree of Soviet involvement in Iran.
Soviet Expert Helmut Sonnenfeldt, a senior fellow at the
Brookings Institution, believes the Soviets cooled on Saddam
because he wanted unconditional support from Moscow for whatever
he proposed to do against Israel or Iran, and was angry when he
failed to obtain it. Moreover, Sonnenfeldt says, the Soviets
were tilting increasingly toward Iran after the fall of the
Shah, because they regarded Iran as a greater strategic prize.
William Quandt, a former National Security Council official now
at Brookings, doubts that the Soviets played a significant role
in Iran's decision to invade Iraq. Says he: "Khomeini is a
genuine revolutionary, and he would like to export his
revolution. He is also a man who personalizes his quarrels--he
`brought down the Shah,' he `brought down Jimmy Carter,' and he
wants to bring down Saddam Hussein. If he could bring into power
an Islamic regime in Iraq, so much the better."
</p>
<p> In early June, the Soviet Union urged Iran to make peace with
Iraq under some of the terms Iran had demanded but with
"modifications." The Soviets even proposed that the two
countries join them in establishing an "anti-imperialist front."
Had the Soviets brought about a peace agreement, it would have
enabled them to retain close relations with both Iran and Iraq,
and would have greatly bolstered their position in the region.
Khomeini said no. On June 21, he made a speech in which he not
only rebuffed Moscow's peacemaking efforts but denounced the
whole Soviet role in the Middle East. Said Khomeini: "The
Americans fear the Soviet Union might do this or that in the
region if we defeat Iraq. The Soviet Union can do nothing. It
has proved to be capable of nothing." Have put the Soviets in
their place. Khomeini continued to accept support from them,
just as he has accepted clandestine help from the Israelis.
</p>
<p> Iran's plan to attack Iraq, with Soviet acquiescence, was in
the formative stages when the Israelis launched their invasion
of Lebanon. The Israelis gambled that with a quick strike at
their northern neighbor's heartland, they could impose a
solution of sorts on their 34-year-old conflict with the
Palestinian Arabs. They bought Defense Minister Ariel Sharon's
argument that such an assault could free northern Israel from
occasional P.L.O. attacks, break the organization's leadership
and perhaps even create pressure on the Palestinians to make
Jordan their homeland. If Syria attacked Israel's invasion
force, so much the better, because Sharon was prepared to carry
his anti-Palestinian offensive all the way to the Syrian
capital, Damascus.
</p>
<p> Their campaign in Lebanon has generally produced the results
the Israelis were seeking, but it has spilled enough blood to
worry the Reagan Administration and its allies. The spectacle
has been observed by 100 million or more citizens of the Arab
would on their TV sets: the siege of Beirut, the brutality of
the ceasefire violations, the Beirut negotiations leading toward
the Israeli goal of expelling the P.L.O. fighting force from
Lebanon. Even Arabs with the highest stakes in the gulf war,the
emirs of Kuwait and princes of Saudi Arabia, have been
traumatized and distracted from their more immediate problems
by the war in Lebanon. They have watched the first siege of an
Arab capital by an Israeli army, and they have become alarmed
at the emotions aroused in their own countries.
</p>
<p> For the Soviets, according to most Western analysts, the
long-term goal is control of Middle East oil. In Afghanistan,
they have built a new airfield in the corner of the country
closest to the mouth of the Persian Gulf. In the Horn of Africa
last week, Soviet-back Ethiopia attacked its traditional enemy
next door, Somalia, probably with the help of Cuban and East
German advisers. If the Ethiopians should defeat Somalia, they
and their Soviet allies would gain a position of influence over
a country that is strategically located at the southern end of
the Red Sea. Moscow could then, if it wished, call South Yemeni
troops back into combat with Oman, which, like Somalia, is
scheduled to provide facilities for the U.S. Rapid Deployment
Force.
</p>
<p> Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has sold Iraq $500 million
worth of arms and ammunition since the Iran-Iraq war began.
Nonetheless, Mubarak fears that Saddam may not be able to stand
up to the Ayatullah's army and Revolutionary Guards for long.
Iran is four times the size of Iraq and has a population that
is three times as large. The Egyptian government believes that
the fighting may be over by September at the latest. And after
that? Would Khomeini rules Iraq as the reigning ayatullah, as
he does Iran, or through a Shi'ite-dominated political mechanism
more closely attuned to the Arab traditions of Iraq?
</p>
<p> That question matters less to Arab leaders than the fact that
Khomeini's forces are already plotting the overthrow of every
government in the gulf. TIME has learned that a new corps of
revolutionaries is being trained under the name of the Popular
Front for the Liberation of the Gulf. The group is led by a
noted ayatullah operating out of Tehran. Recruits are being
trained in camps in South Yemen and Libya and in a new facility
recently opened for a class of 600 in northwestern Iran. The
initial graduates began to filter into the gulf states two year
ago. Some of them bungled their first coup attempt last
December, when Bahrain police arrested 80 terrorists trained and
armed by Iran for the purpose of overthrowing the government of
Sheik Isa Al-Khalifa. Other subversive activity in the gulf
sponsored by Iran is known to be under way.
</p>
<p> One plan being discussed among Iraq's Arab allied for
countering subversive activity calls for the establishment of
an Arab rapid deployment force. The proposal would involve an
Egyptian contingent of several divisions and would perhaps be
deployed along the borders of Iraq in Kuwait and in the Eastern
Province of Saudi Arabia. As a down payment, Egypt would insist
on the restoration of diplomatic relations that were broken off
by most of the gulf states following the conclusion of Egypt's
peace treaty with Israel. The Egyptians would also require ample
supplies of U.S. equipment and strong American support,
including air force and naval assistance if necessary.
</p>
<p> But Mubarak must be cautious about committing his troops to
foreign service. After the late Anwar Sadat made his historic
trip to Jerusalem in 1977, with the full support of his military
commanders, they told him that in the future they would fight
only for Egypt. They did not want to right for Palestinians or
for the antiroyalists in the civil war in Yemen. Egypt's
commanders were prepared to accept peace with Israel, provided
that they would never again have to send Egyptian troops to
fight outside their own country.
</p>
<p> Mubarak knows it could be a mistake for him to send troops to
assist Saddam in Iraq. Such a move not only might antagonize
Egypt's generals, but would also anger the Islamic
fundamentalists in the country. It was the fundamentalists who
assassinated President Sadat last October, and they remain a
threat in spite of Mubarak's crackdowns. Nonetheless Mubarak is
prepared to offer Egyptian troops to defend Saudi Arabia, Kuwait
and the other gulf states,under the terms of the 30-year-old
Joint Arab Defense Pact, if the arrangement is approved by the
states involved and supported militarily by the U.S. Considering
Mubarak's reluctance to send forces anywhere outside Egypt, the
current discussion of such a mission is an indication of how
worried he is about the spread of Islamic revolution.
</p>
<p> Even some of Khomeini's friends are upset about the Iranian
invasion of Iraq. The P.L.O., which has generally supported
Khomeini out of deference to Syria, is furious with the Iranians
for launching an invasion that can only divert attention from
the Palestinians' plight in Lebanon. Arab and Western diplomats
feared that the Iranian attack would enable Israel to move
briskly into West Beirut to settle the problem of the stubborn
P.L.O. Not that such an argument would carry much weight with
the ruler of Iran, which has once more become the primary power
in the gulf. If the Palestinians want Jerusalem as the capital
of a state of their own, Khomeini wants it as the goal of a holy
crusade.
</p>
<p> Officially, Iranians quarrel with the notion that they are
committed to the overthrow of Arab governments. They also deny
that they have fallen under the influence of the Soviet Union.
As Iran's Ambassador to the U.N., Rajaie Khorasani, said last
week, "We have proved that a nation armed with the ideology of
Islam need not choose between the superpowers but can stand on
its own feet." It is true that a wave of Islamic revolutionary
fervor moving across the Middle East would not necessarily serve
the interests of the Soviet Union any more than it would help
the West. But since it would damage existing ties of all kinds,
cultural as well as political and economic, it would have a
great impact on the Arab world's links with the West than on
those with the Soviet Union and its allies.
</p>
<p> Still to be determined is the effect of the gulf war on world
oil prices and markets. Taken together, Iran and Iraq have about
half the oil reserves and export capacity of Saudi Arabia, the
world leader. In recent months, Iran's refusal to abide by
production ceilings set by the Organizations of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries has helped keep world prices down as global
output continued to exceed demand. There was no evidence last
week that either prices or supplies had yet been affected by the
fighting in Iraq.
</p>
<p> But the petroleum industries of both countries, and
particularly Iraq, are quite vulnerable. After its attack on
Iran's Kharg Island facilities last week, Iraq reportedly warned
Japan that its tankers should stop using the island. If Iran
decides to retaliate in kind, it would probably aim first at the
Iraq-Turkey pipeline, the only export route now available for
Iraqi oil, and at the scattered fields to the west of Basra. A
determined Iran could take Iraq out of the oil business for as
long as two years. But even if warfare should paralyze the oil
industries of Iran, Iraq and neighboring Kuwait, thereby
removing about 4 million bbl. per day from world oil markets,
the loss could be overcome by Saudi Arabia, which could
increase production from its current 6.5 million to 10.5 million
bbl. per day.
</p>
<p> What seems indisputable, as the two Middle East wars continue,
is that they are costing the U.S. dearly in prestige. Arab
rulers who privately would welcome American assistance at the
moment fear that they would only inflict damage on their regimes
by appearing to be in league with the U.S. The Reagan
Administration last week offered to hold joint military
exercises with Saudi Arabia and any other gulf states that might
feel threatened by the Iran-Iraq conflict, but so far there have
been no takers. The most critical problem afflicting U.S.-Arab
relations at the moment stems from the link that many Arabs
believe exists between the U.S. and Israel's operation in
Lebanon. But the Arabs also deeply resent the fact that the
Israelis chose to give military support to Khomeini's Iran. The
Israelis respond that the aid effort was based on their
traditional enmity toward Iraq. They claim their aid was halted
several months ago, long before the Iranian invasion of Iraq
began. Other sources say that some Israeli aid, including the
training of Iranian military personnel in the use of American
arms, is continuing.
</p>
<p> What the Reagan Administration still needs most, after 18 months
in office, is a strong policy for the Middle East. Another
central problem has been its unwillingness to say in public what
it has been telling the Israelis in private. According to most
observers, the U.S. opposed the Israeli invasion of Lebanon,
though this did not have any effect on the Israeli government.
But by failing to state its position forcefully, the
Administration appeared to the Arab states to be a silent
partner in the attack or at the very least an overly indulgent
ally. Until the U.S. can distinguish openly between American
policy and Israeli policy, and rein in some of the more
expansionist tendencies of the Begin government, it cannot make
real headway in improving its relations with the Arab world.
</p>
<p> Theoretically, the Administration was correct to hew a neutral
line between Iran and Ira, but changing circumstances call for
a defter touch than the U.S. has displayed thus far. Says
Richard Helms, a former U.S. Ambassador to Iran (and onetime
head of the Central Intelligence Agency): "Now is the time to
come to the aid of our moderate Arab friends. We shouldn't tilt
toward Iraq so much that we throw Iran into the arms of the
Soviets, but we can tilt a little bit, enough to encourage the
Saudis and some of the others to conclude that we are still
their friends and would come to their rescue if worse comes to
worse."
</p>
<p> The first step for the U.S. is to deal forthrightly with the
Palestinian question. This, in fact, is exactly what Secretary
of State George Shultz promised at his confirmation hearing last
week. The Lebanese crisis had made it "painfully and totally
clear," Shultz told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, that
the "legitimate needs and problems" of the Palestinian people
must be resolved. He might well have added that the West's
failure to solve the Palestinian problem has had a lot to do
with giving Islamic fundamentalism its anti-Western basis of
action. The more ambitious Khomeini's forces become, and the
more expansionist his goals in the name of Islam, the more vital
it is that the U.S. have a Middle East policy that is perceived
to be consistent and fair by all moderate parties in the Arab
world.
</p>
<p>-- By William E. Smith. Reported by Murray J. Gart/Middle East
and Dean Brelis/Baghdad
</p>
<p>Shi'ites: A Feared Minority
</p>
<p> With the death of the Prophet Muhammad in A.D. 643, the
conflicts that led to the great division of Islam between Sunnis
and Shi'ites began. Today the Sunnis account for more than 80%
of the world's 750 million Muslims, but the Shi'ites, who
predominate in Iran, Iraq and Bahrain and who have unstable
minorities in Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and Kuwait, generate fears
far out of proportion to their numbers.
</p>
<p> The Shi'ites believe that the leadership of Islam should have
remained in the Prophet's family. The Sunnis prefer to make
such decisions by consensus. The Shi'ites supported Muhammad's
cousin and son-in-law Ali, who became the fourth Caliph, or
successor, before his assassination in 661. According to the
Shi'ites. Ali and his descendants were Imams, divinely guided
leaders and mediators between God and man. The last of twelve
Imams disappeared in 940, and is believed to be in hiding,
awaiting the right moment to re-emerge and establish a purified
Islamic government of justice.
</p>
<p> Because of the violent deaths of Ali and his son Husain,
Shi'ites, unlike Sunnis, emphasize martyrdom and atonement.
Every year the Shi'ites mourn Husain's death with public
re-enactments of the occurrence and displays of
self-flagellation. The same passion seems to have motivated
hundreds of thousands of unarmed Iranians who faced down the
Shah's troops in the streets of Tehran in 1978 and 1979.
Khomeini, no doubt, is counting on that fervor to propel the
Iranian legions that stormed across the Iraqi border last week.
</p>
<p>Personal Power, Personal Hate
</p>
<p> The decision to attack Iraq last week was taken personally by
Ayatullah Ruhollah Khomeini. Despite his advanced age (82) and
frail health, the religious leader has relinquished none of the
levers of power that he grasped upon his triumphal return to
Tehran 3 1/2 year ago. Under Iran's Islamic Republican
constitution, Khomeini's role as Velayat-e-Faqih, or religious
guardian, gives him more power than either President Seyed Ali
Khamene'i or Prime Minister Mir-Hossein Moussavi, and he uses
it to shape all major strategies, domestic as well as foreign.
He also remains the final arbiter of all policy and personality
disputes.
</p>
<p> Almost every day, government officials, military officers,
clerics and foreign representatives travel to Khomeini's modest
home in Jamaran, a village north of Tehran. Some have been
summoned to brief the Ayatullah on everything from logistic
problems on the Iraqi front to statistics on mosque attendance.
Others who wish to see Khomeini must submit a request through
a cleric who acts as an appointments secretary; Khomeini
receives only a small proportion of those seeking an audience.
Sometimes he will make an appearance at the mosque adjacent to
his house. There he receives petitions from the faithful and
obeisance from his followers. Khomeini uses these occasions to
speak out on religious and political subjects. Though his
precarious health has been complicated lately by kidney
problems, which have necessitated an even stricter diet than the
one he favors, and by difficulties in breathing, he remains
psychologically firm and mentally alert.
</p>
<p> Khomeini's approach to decision making is to keep his counsel
at first, allowing the advocates of different options to debate
issues openly. But once Khomeini has announced his choice, all
contending factions rally to his view, regardless of where they
stood before. So it was with the invasion of Iraq.
</p>
<p> Personal motives played an important part in Khomeini's decision
to send his forces into Iraq. The Ayatullah, who was exiled to
Iraq's Holy City of An Najaf after several arrests for anti-Shah
activities, has never forgiven Saddam Hussein for trying to use
him as a paw, in Iraqi-Iranian relations. To placate the Shah
during a short-lived period of rapprochement between the two
countries. Saddam Hussein placed Khomeini under virtual house
arrest in 1975. Three years later, as the Shah came under
increasing pressure from Islamic fundamentalists operating with
Khomeini's backing, Saddam agreed to expel the Ayatullah. It was
then that Khomeini moved to France. Today Khomeini refers to
Saddam as "the epitome of atheist filth."
</p>
<p> In addition, Saddam's aggressively secular, socialist regime has
long been anathema to Khomeini's philosophy of government, which
insists on the clergy's God-given right to rule. With its 55%
Shi'ite majority and Shi'ite shrines at An Najaf and Karbala,
Iraq should, in Khomeini's view, be the natural home of a sister
Islamic republic.
</p>
<p> Four years ago, when Khomeini was still an exile in France, he
was asked who his enemies were. "First the Shah," Khomeini
replied, "then the American Satan, then Saddam Hussein and his
infidel Baath Party." Today the Shah is dead. The U.S. was
humiliated by the 444-day capture of its embassy staff in
Tehran. That leaves Saddam Hussein on the front line of
Khomeini's hatred.</p>
</body>
</article>
</text>